Greater Toronto Residents Are Leaving In Record Volumes
According to Toronto’s Real Estate Board, “borrowing costs and continued uncertainty about the economy, plus constrained listings continue to impact the local housing market” of Toronto CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) which include Durham, Halton, Peel and York regions. With lower year over year average home prices, decreases in sales, and decreases in listings, year over year, what we observe is a mass outflow of residents from the big city. To put this in perspective, prior to 2020, the interprovincial flow of people changed from a positive inflow of 1,150 people to a negative outflow of 10,136 in 2021 and negative 21,388 in 2022. According to Canadian think tank Conference Board of Canada, the high cost of living is the driving factor.
It should be noted, however, that Toronto’s population has increased by 230,000 international immigrants. The latest estimate puts Toronto CMA at 6.69 million people in 2022, up 2.1% (+138,240) from the previous year.
Immigration-Driven Population Growth
According to statistics and information posted on Ontario.ca, “the share of annual population growth coming from natural increase, which is births minus deaths, has been declining over the last 50 years. Accordingly, low fertility rates, an aging population and rising immigration have resulted in an increasing contribution of net migration to provincial population growth. Net migration is the sum of all arrivals minus departures in a given time period. For Ontario, this includes both net international and net interprovincial migration.
In the 1970s, about one-third of population growth was coming from net migration and two-thirds from natural increase. The situation has reversed. Over the last 10 years, natural increase accounted for 28 per cent of population growth in Ontario, and net migration for 72 per cent.”
